Brexit because certainly, in addition to the global problem related to the coronavirus emergency, this is a problem not secondary to the United Kingdom (but ultimately also to the European Union).
A Brexit that costs, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics, at least £ 200 billion.
The study claims that the UK has lost 3% of its GDP in recent years due to Brexit.
Things could also get worse in 2021 as in the year in which the United Kingdom will be definitively out of the EU because there could be production and commercial repercussions in the farewell to the European economic system.
Obviously, this regardless of how all the uncertainties (and these worldwide) related to the solutions that will be adopted to combat the COVID-19 emergency will be resolved.
An uphill path, also because David Frost, British chief negotiator on post-Brexit, is in isolation with the symptoms of the coronavirus. As well as Barner and Johnson.
These last years of uncertainties, according to Dan Hanson, author of the study, would have generated much lower investments than those estimated if the UK was still part of the EU.
Some entrepreneurs have abandoned the games and certainly the estimate of the Anglo-Saxon news agency is not accommodating: the lowering of British growth risks reaching the 525 billion GDP produced by the UK compared to the 541 calculated if it had remained in the euro area.
In the event, however, in which the negotiations with Europe should lead to a favorable agreement, the United Kingdom could still grow more than France and Germany.
The viral emergency has interrupted the delicate negotiations between the UK and the European Union regarding the future relations between the two blocs, therefore uncertainty is added to other uncertainty.
Boris Johnson’s statements about the pandemic saw him on firm positions: to abandon the negotiations as early as June if London did not find progress in the negotiations. At that point a “no deal” would be triggered. Today as today we do not know if these positions will be maintained in any way, in the world emergency situation in which we are all projected not to make plans because we have no certainty of when everything will return to normal. Of course, this is a problem that will reappear urgently as soon as each of us is starting to celebrate a return to everyday life.
For the moment we know that the European Commission has published the draft legal text of the agreement for future relations with the United Kingdom. Brexit is regulated by a four hundred page document that tries to define the rules that go from trade to air transport, to geographical indications and to copyright.